What if a demand air-pocket and full US storage push WTI prices negative again?
A demand air-pocket meets full US storage in a price war, forcing prompt WTI negative again as in April 2020 and inflicting losses on long-only commodity funds and clearing members.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A demand air-pocket meets full US storage in a price war, forcing prompt WTI negative again as in April 2020 and inflicting losses on long-only commodity funds and clearing members. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.