What if a private fusion firm funds the first grid-connected plant?
Fusion funding is a multi-year power-supply story, not a near-term chip catalyst; the cleanest live trade is the AI-capex/power-demand read, where NVDA leads as the bellwether. Best analogue is the May-2023 Nvidia guidance blowout that ignited the capex wave. Skeptical note: a demo-plant milestone is years from grid MW and discounts at a high rate, so a +1.3% NVDA tape is a sentiment pop, not earnings; fade if rates back up.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A private fusion firm secures multi-billion funding to build the first grid-connected demonstration plant after a net-gain milestone. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.