What if sabotage of European gas pipeline infrastructure forces emergency demand curtailment?
Sabotage of European gas pipeline or LNG-terminal infrastructure abruptly removes import capacity, spiking TTF gas and forcing emergency demand-curtailment measures.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sabotage of European gas pipeline or LNG-terminal infrastructure abruptly removes import capacity, spiking TTF gas and forcing emergency demand-curtailment measures. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.6% hist +1.36–+5.94% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.99–-0.73% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.28–-0.64% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.6–-0.25% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.23–-0.26% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.1–+3.34% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.03–-0.02% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.44–+1.74% · other way +10.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.86–+1.52% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.57–+0.06% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.09–+0.41% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.29–+0.15% · other way +9.86% (n=10) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.83–+0.34% · other way -1.51% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 31 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 31 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 31 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |