What if Nornickel Arctic smelter fault cuts global palladium supply?
A processing fault at Nornickel's Norilsk operations removes meaningful palladium and nickel units for months, tightening an already thin PGM market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A processing fault at Nornickel's Norilsk operations removes meaningful palladium and nickel units for months, tightening an already thin PGM market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.6% hist -0.54–+10.04% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.67–-0.28% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.41–+0.53% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.75–-0.01% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.3–+5.63% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.22% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.57–+4.72% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.54–+1.57% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.14–+1.69% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.0–+0.4% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.11–+3.37% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.83–+0.16% · other way +1.91% (n=10) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.44–+7.22% · other way +21.95% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +4.9% | 75% | 24 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 71% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.0% | 67% | 22 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 23 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 29 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 22 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -7.2% | 65% | 15 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.8% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 10 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 21 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.6% | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 21 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -8.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.7% | 58% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |