What if North Sea outage cluster tightens the Brent basket?
Maintenance overruns and unplanned trips across Forties, Ekofisk and Troll thin the physical Brent basket, firming Dated Brent premia and the front spread on the deliverable-grade squeeze.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Maintenance overruns and unplanned trips across Forties, Ekofisk and Troll thin the physical Brent basket, firming Dated Brent premia and the front spread on the deliverable-grade squeeze. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.