What if offshore-wind cost blowouts force project cancellations and developer writedowns?
Cost inflation and rate-driven financing strain force offshore-wind project cancellations and writedowns, impairing developer balance sheets and clean-energy credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cost inflation and rate-driven financing strain force offshore-wind project cancellations and writedowns, impairing developer balance sheets and clean-energy credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–+0.4% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +1.37–+2.55% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.06% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.14–+0.37% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +1.17–+2.59% · other way +6.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.49–-0.04% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 7 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.25–+1.76% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+-0.0% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–+0.24% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.12–+1.84% · other way +6.03% (n=10) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.49% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.56–+0.08% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.55–+0.11% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.01–+0.43% · other way +1.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.9% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.9% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +5.0% | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 20 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d -2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |