What if OPEC+ surprise re-cut snaps Brent up $12 in a week?
OPEC+ abruptly reverses course with a deeper-than-flagged collective cut to defend prices into the glut; front Brent jumps roughly $12 within days, steepening backwardation and lifting XLE, XOM and CVX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. OPEC+ abruptly reverses course with a deeper-than-flagged collective cut to defend prices into the glut; front Brent jumps roughly $12 within days, steepening backwardation and lifting XLE, XOM and CVX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.8% hist +1.0–+2.87% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.0% hist -0.48–+2.23% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.8% hist +0.84–+2.16% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.69–+4.74% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.1–+2.53% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.2–+1.95% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.79–+1.68% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.95–-0.32% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.25–+6.52% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.82–-0.32% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.42–+3.61% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.29–+0.04% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.69–+0.27% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +3.1% | 71% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 35 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.5% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 21 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |