What if OPEC+ unwinds all its output cuts at once?
An OPEC+ surprise unwind of all cuts at once dumps millions of barrels and collapses the curve into contango; short Brent, long airlines, and disinflation-as-tailwind are the trades. Rhymes with the Mar-2020 OPEC+ breakup and the post-cut-removal gluts, which sent prompt prices and energy equities sharply lower. Transmission: a price collapse is a tax cut for importers and fuel-heavy sectors at producers' expense; forward angle: with global demand growth slowing and EVs eating marginal barrels in 2026, an all-at-once unwind risks a deeper, stickier glut than prior coordinated exits.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. OPEC+ unexpectedly unwinds all cuts at once, dumping millions of barrels and collapsing the curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.