What if OPEC vs IEA demand-forecast gap fuels a volatility spike?
A widening gap between OPEC's bullish and the IEA's bearish demand forecasts leaves the market without an anchor, fueling sharp two-way price swings and elevated oil volatility around data releases.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A widening gap between OPEC's bullish and the IEA's bearish demand forecasts leaves the market without an anchor, fueling sharp two-way price swings and elevated oil volatility around data releases. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.31–+1.12% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -1.29–+1.05% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.16–+1.76% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.79–+2.46% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.41–+1.83% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.29–+1.67% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.87–-0.09% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.06–+0.46% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–-0.06% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.81–+3.12% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.05–+5.29% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.7–+15.96% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.19–+17.51% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +5.1% | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 35 | 0.09 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.2% | 53% | 31 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 35 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |