What if an orderly net-zero path steadily reprices utilities as carbon nears $800 per tonne?
An orderly Net-Zero-2050 path lifts the effective global carbon price toward $700-800/t by mid-century, steadily repricing utilities and heavy industry even without a disorderly jump.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An orderly Net-Zero-2050 path lifts the effective global carbon price toward $700-800/t by mid-century, steadily repricing utilities and heavy industry even without a disorderly jump. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.