What if Permian gas glut depresses associated-oil economics?
A Permian natural-gas glut drives Waha hub prices toward zero, squeezing the economics of associated-gas-heavy oil wells and curbing drilling; the gas bottleneck indirectly caps oil supply growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Permian natural-gas glut drives Waha hub prices toward zero, squeezing the economics of associated-gas-heavy oil wells and curbing drilling; the gas bottleneck indirectly caps oil supply growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.08–+1.47% · other way -5.46% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.99–+1.2% · other way -4.62% (n=8) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.23–+1.18% · other way -2.65% (n=8) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.13–+4.03% · other way +19.76% (n=8) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.05–+1.31% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.08–+0.89% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.07–+2.45% · other way +7.14% (n=8) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.39–+0.33% · other way -10.78% (n=8) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.27–+14.22% · other way +33.7% (n=11) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -4.08–+13.09% · other way +27.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.59% · other way +0.12% (n=8) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.01% · other way -0.98% (n=8) |
| 13 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 30 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.8% | 55% | 30 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +7bp | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 51% | 31 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |