What if PLA full naval blockade chokes Taiwan's 11-day LNG buffer?
A multi-week PLA quarantine cuts LNG tanker access; with only ~11 days of gas storage Taiwan faces grid rationing, JKM/LNG spikes globally and semiconductor supply fear sends SMH sharply lower.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-week PLA quarantine cuts LNG tanker access; with only ~11 days of gas storage Taiwan faces grid rationing, JKM/LNG spikes globally and semiconductor supply fear sends SMH sharply lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.