What if PLA full naval blockade chokes Taiwan's 11-day LNG buffer?
A multi-week PLA quarantine cuts LNG tanker access; with only ~11 days of gas storage Taiwan faces grid rationing, JKM/LNG spikes globally and semiconductor supply fear sends SMH sharply lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-week PLA quarantine cuts LNG tanker access; with only ~11 days of gas storage Taiwan faces grid rationing, JKM/LNG spikes globally and semiconductor supply fear sends SMH sharply lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +11.2% hist +2.62–+7.28% · other way -8.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.7% hist -2.46–-0.91% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -4.28–+0.03% · other way -0.82% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -1.93–-0.99% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.18–-0.83% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -3.0–-0.25% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.01–-0.8% · other way +1.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.27–+0.67% · other way +11.03% (n=12) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.3–+0.23% · other way -2.01% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.09–+1.16% · other way -9.14% (n=10) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.3–-0.43% · other way -3.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.26–-0.59% · other way +0.25% (n=11) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.03–-0.22% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.75–-0.3% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 69% | 38 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 74% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 38 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.7% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |