What if a structural power shortage caps US AI compute growth for years?
A structural shortage of firm power caps US AI compute growth for years, slowing the build-out and the productivity payoff that valuations assume.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A structural shortage of firm power caps US AI compute growth for years, slowing the build-out and the productivity payoff that valuations assume. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.69–+0.58% · other way +4.12% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.75–+0.29% · other way +1.61% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.73–+0.32% · other way -3.86% (n=11) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.16% · other way +1.16% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.61–-0.08% · other way -10.9% (n=9) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.0–+1.52% · other way +19.63% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.76–+2.18% · other way +3.82% (n=9) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.18% · other way -0.07% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.82–+2.66% · other way -7.06% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.12–+0.22% · other way -3.09% (n=11) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–-0.02% · other way +0.12% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.08% · other way -0.86% (n=11) |
| 14 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.62–+3.13% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 67% | 24 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.19 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.9% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 34 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -3.2% | 56% | 21 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +1.4% | 53% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -4.4% | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |