What if China bans rare-earth magnets for military end-users and disrupts Western missile and jet production?
A targeted ban on rare-earth magnets for military end-users disrupts Western missile, jet and submarine production, the supply vulnerability emphasised in US/EU defense-industrial reviews.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A targeted ban on rare-earth magnets for military end-users disrupts Western missile, jet and submarine production, the supply vulnerability emphasised in US/EU defense-industrial reviews. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.6% hist +0.91–+9.55% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.0% hist -3.2–-1.72% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -1.88–-1.09% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.05–-0.81% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.83–-0.65% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.8–-0.77% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.87–+0.37% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.5–+1.46% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.72–-0.11% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -3.47–+0.07% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.72–-0.46% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.5–+1.9% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.86–+0.13% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.38–-0.19% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.1% · 5d +7.8% | 85% | 11 | 0.55 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 79% | 26 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 28 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.8% | 68% | 21 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.9% | 68% | 28 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 66% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.7% | 59% | 29 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |