What if Rare-earth oxide stockpile dump by China resets prices lower?
A strategic release from Chinese rare-earth reserves floods the market to discipline rivals, crushing neodymium and dysprosium prices and undercutting Western project economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A strategic release from Chinese rare-earth reserves floods the market to discipline rivals, crushing neodymium and dysprosium prices and undercutting Western project economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.61–-0.11% · other way +0.86% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.95–+0.15% · other way +3.31% (n=10) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.02–+1.31% · other way +5.69% (n=10) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.22–+0.48% · other way -3.37% (n=5) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.03–+0.92% · other way +6.75% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.1% · other way +8.06% (n=10) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.06% · other way +1.84% (n=10) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.3% · other way +5.46% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.71–+0.95% · other way +2.32% (n=7) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.88–+1.68% · other way +3.23% (n=11) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.89% · other way +8.88% (n=10) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.51–+2.78% · other way +10.8% (n=10) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.88–+1.85% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.42–+1.17% · other way -1.42% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.9% | 80% | 20 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.0% | 71% | 17 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -0.9% | 71% | 17 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 17 | 0.29 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -5.2% | 67% | 10 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 63% | 25 | 0.25 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 14 | 0.19 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 17 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 17 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 17 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -7.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 9 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |