What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
Bumper Canadian, EU and Australian rapeseed/canola harvests rebuild oilseed stocks, dragging vegoil and biodiesel-feedstock prices lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Bumper Canadian, EU and Australian rapeseed/canola harvests rebuild oilseed stocks, dragging vegoil and biodiesel-feedstock prices lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Diesel ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–+0.4% · other way +2.93% (n=8) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.03–+2.97% · other way +1.33% (n=8) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.39–+6.02% · other way -1.87% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.62–+8.74% · other way +3.8% (n=8) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.1–+0.55% · other way -0.07% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 19 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -2.9% | 67% | 20 | 0.24 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 21 | 0.19 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -8.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +10.6% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 11 | 0.07 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 38% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.6% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.5% | 47% | 19 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 42% | 17 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 50% | 21 | 0.00 | · |