What if Refined-product builds confirm the demand-side glut?
Simultaneous gasoline, diesel and jet inventory builds confirm the glut is demand-driven, not just upstream, forcing refiners to cut runs and crude to back up; the product signal deepens the contango.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Simultaneous gasoline, diesel and jet inventory builds confirm the glut is demand-driven, not just upstream, forcing refiners to cut runs and crude to back up; the product signal deepens the contango. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gasoline ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.05–+3.21% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.57–+4.56% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -3.08–+10.39% · other way +10.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.23–+0.65% · other way +0.43% (n=7) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -5.76–+9.34% · other way +3.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.2% | 71% | 20 | 0.31 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 68% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 18 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.06 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -8.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 45% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 44% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 37% | 15 | 0.00 | · |