What if rising rates and curtailment push a cohort of renewables project-finance loans into default?
Rising rates, curtailment and cost inflation push a cohort of renewables project-finance loans into default, exposing lenders concentrated in clean-energy infrastructure debt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising rates, curtailment and cost inflation push a cohort of renewables project-finance loans into default, exposing lenders concentrated in clean-energy infrastructure debt. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.89–-0.15% · other way +16.5% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.43–+0.3% · other way +0.52% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–+0.36% · other way +0.41% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.87–+1.9% · other way +0.34% (n=9) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.89–+1.06% · other way +3.78% (n=9) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–-0.16% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.36–+6.58% · other way -9.13% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.93–+0.56% · other way -1.41% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.86% · other way +1.97% (n=11) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.06–+1.51% · other way +3.61% (n=9) |
| 12 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.1–+0.91% · other way -2.11% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.07% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.1% · other way +0.37% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.4% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 17 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.6% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |