What if top rice exporters restrict shipments and spike Asian rice prices?
Top rice exporters restrict shipments amid weather and political stress, replaying India's 2023 curbs and spiking Asian rice prices for import-dependent nations.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Top rice exporters restrict shipments amid weather and political stress, replaying India's 2023 curbs and spiking Asian rice prices for import-dependent nations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.