What if a rogue nation starts solar geoengineering on its own?
Unilateral SAI is a geopolitical-crisis and agri-termination-shock story: the tradable legs are a tail-risk vol bid plus a monsoon/yield-disruption premium in grains, not a clean semis selloff. No real analogue exists; the closest reasoning rhyme is Pinatubo's 1991 eruption, which cooled the globe ~0.5C and perturbed monsoons. Forward angle: the novel risk is cross-border retaliation over weather modification — price it as geopolitical risk plus agri convexity, not a Nasdaq drawdown.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A nation unilaterally begins solar geoengineering, triggering geopolitical crisis and termination-shock fears in agriculture markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.