What if Rosatom fuel sanctions tighten European nuclear supply?
Sanctions on Russian enriched-uranium and reactor-fuel deliveries strain European and US nuclear utilities, lifting uranium prices and the energy-security premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sanctions on Russian enriched-uranium and reactor-fuel deliveries strain European and US nuclear utilities, lifting uranium prices and the energy-security premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +1.06–+3.57% · other way +5.33% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.37–-0.44% · other way -1.83% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.85–-0.44% · other way -1.06% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.74–-0.37% · other way +1.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.55–+4.34% · other way +2.24% (n=11) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.04–-0.1% · other way -0.61% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.11–+2.95% · other way +18.91% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.7–+0.42% · other way +10.78% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.91–+0.47% · other way -0.59% (n=11) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.09–+0.52% · other way +1.61% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–-0.01% · other way +8.02% (n=11) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.9–+0.05% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 14 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.07–+0.8% · other way +0.49% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.9% | 72% | 35 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 34 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 70% | 35 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.7% · 5d +1.6% | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.6% | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.5% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |