What if an oil and real-yield spike ends India's rupee carry appeal?
A spike in oil and US real yields ends India's low-vol carry appeal, pressuring the rupee to record lows past 90/USD despite RBI intervention.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A spike in oil and US real yields ends India's low-vol carry appeal, pressuring the rupee to record lows past 90/USD despite RBI intervention. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.32–+1.0% · other way -2.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -4.42–+0.77% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist -1.02–+0.89% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.13–-0.15% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.93–+0.37% · other way +24.22% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.67–+0.57% · other way -1.55% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.72–+0.29% · other way -5.38% (n=10) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.99–-0.04% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–-0.07% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.01–+0.71% · other way +10.85% (n=12) |
| 12 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.5–+0.41% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.07–+0.67% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.14–+1.44% · other way +2.31% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 75% | 35 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.1% | 70% | 38 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.1% | 69% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 35 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 38 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.9% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -4.5% | 66% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +4.9% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.3% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |