What if Russia walks away from the OPEC+ alliance?
Moscow walking away from OPEC+ ends coordinated supply management and reopens a Saudi-Russia volume contest; short Brent, long airlines, and a steeper contango are the trades, with disinflation a duration tailwind. The exact analogue is the Mar-2020 OPEC+ collapse, when the Saudi-Russia split sent Brent toward $20 before a new deal. Transmission: both sell into Asia/Europe and would compete for Chinese/Indian share; forward angle: a sanctioned, discount-selling Russia in 2026 has even less to lose from a price war, so a breakup could be more bearish and harder to repair than 2020.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Moscow walks away from the OPEC+ alliance over compliance disputes, ending coordinated supply management. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.