What if Russia walks away from the OPEC+ alliance?
Moscow walking away from OPEC+ ends coordinated supply management and reopens a Saudi-Russia volume contest; short Brent, long airlines, and a steeper contango are the trades, with disinflation a duration tailwind. The exact analogue is the Mar-2020 OPEC+ collapse, when the Saudi-Russia split sent Brent toward $20 before a new deal. Transmission: both sell into Asia/Europe and would compete for Chinese/Indian share; forward angle: a sanctioned, discount-selling Russia in 2026 has even less to lose from a price war, so a breakup could be more bearish and harder to repair than 2020.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Moscow walks away from the OPEC+ alliance over compliance disputes, ending coordinated supply management. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -4.8% hist -4.42–-0.84% · other way -0.65% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -4.0% hist -3.44–-0.64% · other way -0.4% (n=8) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.5% hist +0.86–+2.41% · other way +0.19% (n=9) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.17–+0.06% · other way -1.13% (n=8) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.09–+3.07% · other way +18.69% (n=8) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.61–+0.08% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.29–-0.05% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.73–+1.35% · other way +9.47% (n=8) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.05–+1.87% · other way -2.25% (n=8) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -8bp hist -5.71–-1.2% · other way +17.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -7bp hist -4.9–-1.6% · other way +19.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.01% · other way -1.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.35% · other way +2.19% (n=8) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.32% · other way +4.44% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade on AVGO/SMH/ETH: ETH's -10% leans on the 2018 Bitcoin-Cash hash-war crash and semis' move is AI-capex beta — both off-channel for an OPEC+ breakup; swamped, contaminated samples.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +14.7% · 5d +3.9% | 82% | 10 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.0% | 70% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 26 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 24 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 24 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Russia needs OPEC+ revenue; formal exit rare structural break, unlikely within 1-3yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.