What if sanctions on Russian palladium spike autocatalyst costs for automakers?
Sanctions or supply disruption on Russian palladium (a dominant share of supply) spikes PGM prices and raises autocatalyst costs for global automakers, a trade-and-supply metals scenario.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sanctions or supply disruption on Russian palladium (a dominant share of supply) spikes PGM prices and raises autocatalyst costs for global automakers, a trade-and-supply metals scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.