What if Russian metals re-enter LME after a thaw?
A ceasefire and partial sanctions relief return Russian aluminum, nickel, and palladium to Western exchanges, easing the metals-supply premium and base-metal prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A ceasefire and partial sanctions relief return Russian aluminum, nickel, and palladium to Western exchanges, easing the metals-supply premium and base-metal prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -3.9% hist -3.36–-0.86% · other way +7.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.34–+0.94% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.29–+0.64% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.06–+0.97% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.79–+12.83% · other way -1.92% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.81–+0.62% · other way +2.39% (n=9) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.39–+1.86% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.08–+0.46% · other way +0.39% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.91–+3.13% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.48–+1.51% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.32–+0.2% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–-0.04% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.8–+12.33% · other way -7.39% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.7% | 78% | 40 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.0% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -6.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |