What if tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap removes barrels and lifts freight costs?
Tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions removes barrels from the market, tightening crude balances and lifting freight and insurance costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions removes barrels from the market, tightening crude balances and lifting freight and insurance costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.49–+4.79% · other way -3.02% (n=12) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.78–+2.47% · other way -3.04% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.64–-0.89% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.17–+3.08% · other way -3.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.39–-0.65% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.08–+2.18% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.77–-0.14% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.08–+5.35% · other way +25.67% (n=12) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.63–+1.04% · other way +4.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.18–+2.11% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.75–+0.0% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.06–+1.39% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.89–+0.54% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.16–+0.0% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +1.6% | 76% | 20 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 27 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.7% · 5d +3.0% | 65% | 20 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 27 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 27 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 31 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -7.9% | 61% | 13 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |