What if food-price riots erupt across the Sahel?
Sahel bread riots are real political risk but localized; the asset response is regional sovereign/FX stress and a modest wheat bid, not a 3.7% Nasdaq selloff. Rhymes with the 2007-08 and 2011 food-price riots that toppled governments across North Africa — Arab Spring being the canonical analogue cited. Transmission runs through CFA-franc states and France/EU exposure plus wheat importers; the US-equity-vol cascade is wildly oversized for a Sahel food shock.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Surging staple prices ignite bread riots and political unrest across multiple Sahel states, disrupting trade and aid. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.