What if a shadow-fleet and barter network erodes sanctions efficacy and creates hidden counterparty exposures?
A sprawling shadow-fleet and barter network routes sanctioned oil and goods through opaque intermediaries, eroding sanctions efficacy and creating hidden counterparty and insurance exposures.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sprawling shadow-fleet and barter network routes sanctioned oil and goods through opaque intermediaries, eroding sanctions efficacy and creating hidden counterparty and insurance exposures. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.6% hist +1.65–+5.65% · other way -6.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.21–-1.13% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.73–-0.73% · other way +0.32% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.66–-0.6% · other way +2.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.08–-0.63% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.88–+1.19% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.2–-0.64% · other way +2.78% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.04–-0.48% · other way -0.71% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.28–+0.69% · other way +2.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.18–-0.43% · other way +3.32% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.19–-0.27% · other way +2.96% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.06–-0.44% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -2.53–+1.44% · other way -2.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.51–+0.24% · other way -1.88% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.2% · 5d +4.8% | 74% | 17 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.9% | 72% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 37 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.6% | 69% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.0% | 65% | 37 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.4% | 66% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -4.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |