What if Sanctions partially lifted, Russian gas trickles back?
A peace deal brings phased sanctions relief and limited pipeline-gas resumption to the EU, easing TTF structurally lower and lifting energy-intensive European industry.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A peace deal brings phased sanctions relief and limited pipeline-gas resumption to the EU, easing TTF structurally lower and lifting energy-intensive European industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -5.2% hist -3.11–-1.54% · other way -6.06% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.06–+1.12% · other way -1.01% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.47–+0.69% · other way -0.49% (n=10) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.01–+2.62% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.54–+1.64% · other way +14.47% (n=7) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.97–+15.62% · other way -2.21% (n=10) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.2–+0.71% · other way -1.03% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.27–+0.52% · other way +9.7% (n=7) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.8–+2.37% · other way +16.5% (n=7) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.16–+0.67% · other way -0.15% (n=10) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.33–+0.25% · other way +1.37% (n=9) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.76–+1.35% · other way -5.64% (n=11) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.35–+0.55% · other way -3.2% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +4.1% · 5d +0.3% | 78% | 40 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.7% | 76% | 40 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.9% | 75% | 39 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 72% | 40 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.7% | 68% | 39 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +5bp | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.7% · 5d +1.5% | 62% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |