What if SMR fleet orders from hyperscalers scale small-modular nuclear?
Repeat small-modular-reactor orders backed by datacenter offtake move SMRs from demonstration toward fleet deployment, opening a multi-decade baseload-power and fuel demand cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Repeat small-modular-reactor orders backed by datacenter offtake move SMRs from demonstration toward fleet deployment, opening a multi-decade baseload-power and fuel demand cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.78–-0.45% · other way -1.55% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.82–-0.12% · other way -0.13% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.92–-0.23% · other way +1.32% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.08–+0.67% · other way -0.84% (n=5) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.24–+0.68% · other way -6.88% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.07–+0.63% · other way -1.31% (n=6) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.0–+12.28% · other way +5.11% (n=5) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.22–+0.52% · other way +0.03% (n=5) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.09–+3.2% · other way -2.01% (n=5) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.55–+6.43% · other way -3.36% (n=5) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.6% · other way -0.15% (n=5) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.42% · other way -1.95% (n=5) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.38–+8.98% · other way +3.46% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 27 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +0.7% | 67% | 22 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 27 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +2.0% | 65% | 24 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 26 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.4% | 64% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 26 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 27 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 23 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 24 | 0.11 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.8% · 5d +5.7% | 56% | 11 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 24 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 24 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |