What if BOJ exits negative rates smoothly with a gradual, telegraphed glide?
The BOJ lifts policy out of negative territory in pre-announced steps, JGB yields drift up in an orderly fashion and the yen firms gently without triggering a carry shock, a calm normalization.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The BOJ lifts policy out of negative territory in pre-announced steps, JGB yields drift up in an orderly fashion and the yen firms gently without triggering a carry shock, a calm normalization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.