What if Solid-state battery scale-up reorders the materials supply chain?
Commercial solid-state cells shift demand toward lithium metal and ceramic electrolytes and away from graphite and liquid-electrolyte inputs, reshaping critical-mineral demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Commercial solid-state cells shift demand toward lithium metal and ceramic electrolytes and away from graphite and liquid-electrolyte inputs, reshaping critical-mineral demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.81–-0.42% · other way -3.89% (n=5) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.31–+0.56% · other way -1.39% (n=6) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.76–-0.33% · other way -4.7% (n=5) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.97–+4.26% · other way -9.75% (n=5) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–-0.16% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.86–+1.62% · other way -5.65% (n=5) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.14–+20.75% · other way +8.22% (n=5) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.63–+3.59% · other way -4.93% (n=5) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.2–+0.41% · other way -0.04% (n=5) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.4–+0.85% · other way +18.81% (n=6) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.72–+11.82% · other way -1.59% (n=5) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.69–+0.79% · other way +8.31% (n=5) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.57–+0.59% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.8% · 5d -10.2% | 81% | 12 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +11.0% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 71% | 14 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 16 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -5.6% | 69% | 18 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 19 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.7% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +1bp | 63% | 19 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.5% | 57% | 16 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 16 | 0.12 | · |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 18 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 16 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |