What if Spare-capacity illusion exposed as real buffers fall short?
A stress test reveals OPEC+ spare capacity is far thinner than headline figures, removing the perceived shock absorber and re-rating the oil-risk premium higher across the curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A stress test reveals OPEC+ spare capacity is far thinner than headline figures, removing the perceived shock absorber and re-rating the oil-risk premium higher across the curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.3% hist +0.82–+1.97% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.8% hist -0.87–+1.6% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.16–+2.3% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.08–+2.02% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.17–+2.22% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.11–+1.97% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.27–-0.33% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.97–+2.84% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–-0.14% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.07% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.15–+5.12% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -2.67–+17.67% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -2.35–+18.91% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–-0.03% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.6% | 70% | 35 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +2.7% | 69% | 22 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 9 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +5.1% | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 35 | 0.09 | · |