What if Stagflation oil shock, Brent jumps with growth rolling over?
A supply-driven Brent spike collides with slowing growth, producing a classic stagflationary mix; equities fall, breakevens rise, gold bids and central banks are boxed in between inflation and recession.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A supply-driven Brent spike collides with slowing growth, producing a classic stagflationary mix; equities fall, breakevens rise, gold bids and central banks are boxed in between inflation and recession. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.2% hist +1.17–+2.51% · other way -4.99% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.4% hist +1.21–+2.26% · other way -5.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.52–+2.24% · other way -2.19% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.71–+2.93% · other way +29.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.05–-0.44% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.42–+5.62% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.34–+2.82% · other way +11.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.09–+2.56% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.01–-0.04% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.04–+2.05% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 11 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.23–+0.62% · other way +5.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.8–-0.23% · other way +8.73% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.28–-0.11% · other way +5.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +3.1% | 71% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 35 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.5% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 69% | 33 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.5% | 66% | 33 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 66% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 22 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |