What if Chinese rebar prices fall below cash cost and export steel deflation globally?
Chinese rebar and HRC prices fall below cash cost as property starts collapse, exporting steel deflation globally and triggering EU/US anti-dumping and idled-capacity stress in Western mills.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chinese rebar and HRC prices fall below cash cost as property starts collapse, exporting steel deflation globally and triggering EU/US anti-dumping and idled-capacity stress in Western mills. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.