What if bans strand the Arctic's vast oil reserves?
An Arctic drilling ban plus carbon rules strand long-dated reserves, lowering future supply and lifting the back of the crude curve while repricing producers' reserve-based valuations. This rhymes with the 2021 IEA 'net-zero, no new fields' shock and ESG-driven capex cuts that tightened 2022 supply. Forward angle: the near-term spot move is modest (Arctic barrels are decades out); the real trade is steeper long-dated backwardation and a premium on already-producing low-cost majors.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A drilling ban plus carbon rules strand vast Arctic oil reserves, repricing producer balance sheets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.