What if refiners pivoting to biofuels face costly conversions and stranded conventional units?
Refiners pivoting to biofuels and renewable diesel face costly conversions and stranded conventional units as fuel demand peaks, pressuring downstream credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Refiners pivoting to biofuels and renewable diesel face costly conversions and stranded conventional units as fuel demand peaks, pressuring downstream credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Diesel ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.72% · other way -0.71% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.54–+3.27% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.37% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.4–+0.27% · other way +1.12% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.93–+1.53% · other way +12.15% (n=11) |
| 6 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.94–+0.44% · other way +2.46% (n=11) |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.64–+0.15% · other way -0.64% (n=11) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.02–+2.51% · other way -4.26% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.5% | 75% | 40 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 39 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 46% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 34% | 25 | 0.00 | · |