What if Strikes on Russian crude export terminals spike Brent?
Drone hits on Novorossiysk and Primorsk loading infrastructure curb seaborne Russian crude, pushing Brent up several dollars on a genuine barrels-off-market supply hit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Drone hits on Novorossiysk and Primorsk loading infrastructure curb seaborne Russian crude, pushing Brent up several dollars on a genuine barrels-off-market supply hit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.2% hist -0.62–+2.35% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.5% hist -4.67–+1.74% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.45–+1.36% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.62–+5.66% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.49–+1.42% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.47–+1.03% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.79–+2.82% · other way +4.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.87–-0.18% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.36–+1.31% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.12–+2.75% · other way +30.65% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.7–-0.14% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.56–+1.13% · other way +4.74% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +9bp hist -0.65–+13.04% · other way +5.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.7% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +3.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -2.9% | 72% | 30 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +7.6% | 64% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 31 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 15 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 28 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.9% | 60% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |