What if Supply cliff after the glut snaps the market into deficit?
Years of low prices and underinvestment trigger a supply cliff as legacy fields decline and no replacements come online, snapping the market from glut to deficit and sending Brent sharply higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Years of low prices and underinvestment trigger a supply cliff as legacy fields decline and no replacements come online, snapping the market from glut to deficit and sending Brent sharply higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.8% hist +0.18–+2.13% |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.2% hist -2.22–+2.12% |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.3% hist +0.61–+2.0% |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.12–+2.56% |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.02–+7.87% |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.28–+1.3% |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.0–+4.06% |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.98–-0.03% |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -2.6–+19.57% |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.79–-0.05% |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.15–+3.23% |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.82–-0.06% |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.47–+0.04% |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -3.48–+20.87% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 74% | 30 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +0.8% | 71% | 30 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.8% | 69% | 32 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +1.0% | 67% | 28 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 69% | 30 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 63% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -8.5% | 65% | 13 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |