What if geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network and leaves some economies without a backstop?
Geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network to core allies, leaving excluded economies without a dollar backstop and prone to acute funding squeezes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Geopolitics narrows the Fed's swap-line network to core allies, leaving excluded economies without a dollar backstop and prone to acute funding squeezes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.5% hist +1.09–+3.9% · other way -7.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.86–-0.48% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.08–-0.34% · other way +23.53% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -8.11–+1.56% · other way -3.36% (n=10) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -0.99–-0.49% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.68–+0.01% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.74–+1.41% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -6.43–+1.36% · other way +10.63% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.92–+0.06% · other way +3.85% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.92–-0.11% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–+0.53% · other way +23.91% (n=10) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.43–+0.58% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.09–+0.77% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 75% | 36 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.3% | 73% | 36 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -5.8% | 75% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -8.5% | 65% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -3.9% | 64% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.4% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |