What if Taiwan completes LNG storage buildout to a 24-day buffer?
New receiving terminals double Taiwan's gas reserve days, blunting the blockade-starvation thesis; the energy-chokepoint risk discount on TWD and TSM narrows, JKM sensitivity falls.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. New receiving terminals double Taiwan's gas reserve days, blunting the blockade-starvation thesis; the energy-chokepoint risk discount on TWD and TSM narrows, JKM sensitivity falls. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.59–+0.55% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.16–+1.09% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.37–+0.5% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.15–+1.73% · other way -2.66% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.21–+0.92% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.39–+2.08% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.05–+2.01% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.82–+18.01% · other way +5.58% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.15–+1.75% · other way +9.99% (n=9) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.97–+0.85% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.31–+0.85% · other way -4.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.93% · other way +0.74% (n=10) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.16–+0.39% · other way +2.65% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +0.1% | 78% | 40 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.6% | 74% | 40 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 77% | 39 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.0% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -5.8% | 70% | 37 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +3bp | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.4% | 65% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 38 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |