What if TWD carry rebuilds as Strait tensions normalize lower?
A sustained de-escalation period restores foreign appetite for Taiwanese assets and TWD carry; carry trades into Asia revive, TAIEX outperforms and the regional risk discount fades.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A sustained de-escalation period restores foreign appetite for Taiwanese assets and TWD carry; carry trades into Asia revive, TAIEX outperforms and the regional risk discount fades. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.7% hist -5.17–-0.62% · other way +3.04% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.65–+1.46% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.29–+1.35% · other way +1.18% (n=10) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.14–+1.86% · other way +0.84% (n=10) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.03–+1.47% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -5.49–+2.22% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -13.44–+0.18% · other way -2.22% (n=4) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.14–+0.77% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.36–+2.15% · other way -0.7% (n=10) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.05–+2.63% · other way -2.09% (n=5) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.96–+0.54% · other way +7.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.31–+2.08% · other way +9.4% (n=6) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.5–+2.05% · other way -3.52% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -8.3% | 88% | 19 | 0.59 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -1.1% | 79% | 17 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 39 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 30 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 31 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 39 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 37 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 30 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |