What if mutual visa curbs fragment the global tech-talent pool?
Mutual curbs on researchers, students and engineers in strategic fields fragment the global tech-talent pool, slowing innovation and raising R&D costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mutual curbs on researchers, students and engineers in strategic fields fragment the global tech-talent pool, slowing innovation and raising R&D costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.5% hist +0.58–+7.53% · other way -2.93% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.8% hist -2.27–-0.94% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.74–-0.83% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.63–-0.92% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.86–-0.38% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.31–+0.03% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.01–+0.28% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.96–+0.19% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.92–-0.44% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.63–-0.23% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.98–+0.02% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.11–+0.56% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.99–+2.15% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -7.57–+3.19% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.7% | 72% | 22 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 28 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 68% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 26 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.2% | 68% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 27 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.0% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -8.0% | 62% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 27 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |