What if a Gulf hurricane knocks out Texas's grid and refining capacity simultaneously?
A major Gulf hurricane strikes the Texas coast and knocks out grid and refining capacity, compounding insured losses with energy-price and supply-chain disruption the Fed flags.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major Gulf hurricane strikes the Texas coast and knocks out grid and refining capacity, compounding insured losses with energy-price and supply-chain disruption the Fed flags. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.76–+0.68% · other way -1.41% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +-0.0–+1.08% · other way -2.11% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.48–+0.25% · other way +16.5% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+0.05% · other way +0.34% (n=9) |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.82–+0.73% · other way +11.41% (n=11) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.23–-0.12% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.26–+5.17% · other way -9.13% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–+0.33% · other way +0.52% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.68% · other way +1.97% (n=11) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.16–+1.68% · other way +3.78% (n=9) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.29–+1.79% · other way +3.61% (n=9) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.8–+0.16% · other way +0.37% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.02% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 54% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |