What if erratic tariff threats freeze global corporate investment?
A surge in trade-policy uncertainty from erratic tariff threats freezes corporate investment and supply-chain decisions, a growth drag the IMF and Fed quantify in fragmentation studies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surge in trade-policy uncertainty from erratic tariff threats freezes corporate investment and supply-chain decisions, a growth drag the IMF and Fed quantify in fragmentation studies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.7% hist +1.02–+5.5% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.1% hist -2.43–-1.45% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.68–-0.21% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.56–-0.42% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.46–-0.48% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.44–+3.5% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.5–+0.92% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.24–-0.19% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.27–-0.12% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.38–+2.14% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.54–+0.12% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.79–+0.18% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.69–-0.17% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 82% | 21 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 22 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.3% | 64% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 21 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 22 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |