What if a typhoon cluster disrupts ports and electronics factories across East Asia?
A typhoon cluster across East/Southeast Asia disrupts ports, electronics factories and shipping, the acute physical-risk supply-chain channel that propagates to global manufacturing and inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A typhoon cluster across East/Southeast Asia disrupts ports, electronics factories and shipping, the acute physical-risk supply-chain channel that propagates to global manufacturing and inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.03–+0.53% · other way +2.46% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.98–-0.04% · other way +3.52% (n=12) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.94–+0.36% · other way +0.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.4–+0.96% · other way +4.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.87–+0.54% · other way -4.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–-0.07% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.45–+0.24% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.11% · other way +0.91% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.36–+1.07% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.22–+0.62% · other way +4.49% (n=12) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.18–+0.92% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.0–+1.37% · other way -2.92% (n=12) |
| 13 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.99–+1.21% · other way -2.97% (n=12) |
| 14 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.18–+0.6% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 72% | 33 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.7% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.6% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 33 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |