What if net-zero expectations collapse upstream oil capex and set up a later supply crunch?
A credible net-zero outlook collapses upstream oil-and-gas capex, raising the tail risk of a later supply crunch even as near-term producer reserves face stranding writedowns.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A credible net-zero outlook collapses upstream oil-and-gas capex, raising the tail risk of a later supply crunch even as near-term producer reserves face stranding writedowns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.5–+1.62% · other way -2.87% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.4–+1.69% · other way -3.29% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.06–+1.6% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.13–+0.65% · other way +9.0% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.11–+1.48% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.04–+1.01% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.94–+1.19% · other way +6.51% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.66–+5.0% · other way +25.14% (n=11) |
| 9 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.29–+1.15% · other way -2.36% (n=11) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.4–+1.42% · other way -2.31% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–+0.35% · other way +6.87% (n=9) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.09% · other way +0.46% (n=11) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -2.82–+12.51% · other way +17.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.26% · other way +0.45% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +1.7% | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +5bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -7.6% | 59% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 31 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 31 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |