What if years of constrained oil capex leave spare capacity too thin to absorb any demand surge?
Years of constrained oil-and-gas capex under transition pressure leave spare capacity thin, so any demand resilience produces sharp price spikes and volatility.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Years of constrained oil-and-gas capex under transition pressure leave spare capacity thin, so any demand resilience produces sharp price spikes and volatility. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist -1.16–+2.29% · other way -1.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -2.88–+1.99% · other way +2.16% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.47–+1.27% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.26–+5.0% · other way +7.09% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.48–+1.1% · other way -1.76% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.29–+0.94% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.42–+3.46% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.42–-0.23% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -2.63–+18.65% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -2.89–+20.33% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.47–+0.0% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 12 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.33–+0.52% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.98% · other way +2.88% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–-0.09% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.2% | 71% | 30 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 30 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +3.6% | 66% | 31 | 0.29 | · |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 22 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 30 | 0.27 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 30 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.5% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |