What if sanctions disrupt Western nuclear-fuel supply from Russia?
Sanctions on Russian enriched uranium and conversion services disrupt Western nuclear-fuel supply, raising power-sector costs and reshoring urgency.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sanctions on Russian enriched uranium and conversion services disrupt Western nuclear-fuel supply, raising power-sector costs and reshoring urgency. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.3% hist +0.63–+6.82% · other way -10.39% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.62–-0.65% · other way +1.42% (n=11) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.45–+1.67% · other way -0.44% (n=10) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -0.62–+1.59% · other way +3.07% (n=11) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.11–-0.49% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.97–-0.44% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.21–+1.49% · other way +0.21% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.78–-0.37% · other way +1.45% (n=11) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.97–+6.3% · other way +6.32% (n=10) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.4–+2.23% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.75–+2.82% · other way +20.17% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.17–+1.67% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.7–+3.76% · other way +6.18% (n=10) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.22–+7.2% · other way -1.59% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +1.9% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 20 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +1.0% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |