What if a nuclear-led decarbonisation push drives a uranium-price spike?
A nuclear-led decarbonisation push under some net-zero pathways drives a uranium-price spike as enrichment and supply struggle to scale, lifting fuel costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A nuclear-led decarbonisation push under some net-zero pathways drives a uranium-price spike as enrichment and supply struggle to scale, lifting fuel costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.08–+1.28% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.79–+1.44% · other way +5.14% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.96–+0.65% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.33–+0.52% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.23–+0.76% · other way +8.45% (n=12) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.98% · other way +2.79% (n=12) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.92–+5.56% · other way +5.35% (n=11) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.1–+0.48% · other way -2.22% (n=12) |
| 9 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.05–+0.38% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 10 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.16–+3.9% · other way +5.96% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -4.1–+16.2% · other way +4.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.52–+0.28% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.14–+18.25% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.12–-0.05% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 30 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +3.6% | 66% | 31 | 0.29 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 30 | 0.27 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 30 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.9% | 56% | 30 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |